# Test 1: Channel Switching — Do Monetary Unions Change the Demographic CA Channel?

| DV | Spec | Z₁ (base) |  | Z₁×EMU |  | Z₁×CFA |  | N | R² |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA/GDP | Base | -113.029*** | (8.492) |  |  |  |  | 6044 | 0.133 |
| CA/GDP | +EMU | -117.471*** | (8.651) | -87.985 | (53.995) |  |  | 6044 | 0.141 |
| CA/GDP | +CFA | -142.930*** | (9.468) |  |  | 107.214*** | (37.527) | 6044 | 0.139 |
| CA/GDP | Joint | -150.731*** | (9.700) | -78.001 | (53.811) | 116.129*** | (37.382) | 6044 | 0.147 |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Trade Balance/GDP | Base | -105.736*** | (10.749) |  |  |  |  | 5790 | 0.206 |
| Trade Balance/GDP | +EMU | -110.409*** | (10.910) | -191.527*** | (55.745) |  |  | 5790 | 0.212 |
| Trade Balance/GDP | +CFA | -107.076*** | (12.000) |  |  | 14.324 | (48.790) | 5790 | 0.211 |
| Trade Balance/GDP | Joint | -115.026*** | (12.230) | -197.250*** | (55.736) | 24.296 | (48.894) | 5790 | 0.216 |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Primary Income/GDP | Base | 4.000 | (3.717) |  |  |  |  | 5790 | 0.041 |
| Primary Income/GDP | +EMU | 4.700 | (3.787) | 9.455 | (20.360) |  |  | 5790 | 0.037 |
| Primary Income/GDP | +CFA | 9.113** | (4.146) |  |  | -68.314*** | (16.864) | 5790 | 0.051 |
| Primary Income/GDP | Joint | 10.425** | (4.242) | 10.031 | (20.338) | -69.796*** | (16.927) | 5790 | 0.046 |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Secondary Income/GDP | Base | -10.524** | (5.006) |  |  |  |  | 5790 | 0.007 |
| Secondary Income/GDP | +EMU | -10.459** | (5.066) | 82.173*** | (23.013) |  |  | 5790 | 0.006 |
| Secondary Income/GDP | +CFA | -16.111*** | (5.538) |  |  | 72.810*** | (22.565) | 5790 | 0.011 |
| Secondary Income/GDP | Joint | -14.969*** | (5.620) | 83.804*** | (22.994) | 70.493*** | (22.615) | 5790 | 0.009 |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| S-I Gap | Base | -469.354*** | (17.313) |  |  |  |  | 5457 | 0.157 |
| S-I Gap | +EMU | -481.632*** | (17.506) | 145.904* | (76.325) |  |  | 5457 | 0.161 |
| S-I Gap | +CFA | -558.406*** | (19.398) |  |  | 112.465 | (73.917) | 5457 | 0.187 |
| S-I Gap | Joint | -578.804*** | (19.656) | 139.310* | (75.160) | 129.967* | (73.450) | 5457 | 0.195 |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Non-S-I Residual | Base | 374.306*** | (13.477) |  |  |  |  | 5438 | 0.150 |
| Non-S-I Residual | +EMU | 383.806*** | (13.648) | -247.465*** | (60.565) |  |  | 5438 | 0.155 |
| Non-S-I Residual | +CFA | 475.385*** | (14.975) |  |  | -147.627*** | (56.951) | 5438 | 0.189 |
| Non-S-I Residual | Joint | 492.307*** | (15.188) | -238.440*** | (58.590) | -161.765*** | (56.615) | 5438 | 0.200 |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |

*Notes: PanelGLS with country and year FE. Base = Z₁ alone (replicates earlier papers). +EMU/+CFA add Z×union interactions. Joint includes both. If Z₁ is significant on income in the base but Z₁×EMU is significant on trade, the channels are regime-contingent.*
*Controls: fiscal balance, lagged NFA, growth, relative productivity, KAOPEN.*
*\*p<0.1, \*\*p<0.05, \*\*\*p<0.01*
